This paper describes the models that BEA uses to estimate the
cyclically adjusted Federal budget and inflation-induced changes in the
cyclically adjusted budget. The quarterly data for the variables in the
models and the regression equations underlying the coefficients in the
models are presented. The paper also discusses the cyclical adjustment
of Federal debt and shows some results. Finally, the paper presents some
simplified estimation procedures that approximate the results of the
complete models, but have much more limited data requirements.
This paper, which is No. 40 in the BEA Staff Paper series, may be
ordered from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, DC 20402. The telephone number is (202) 783-3238.
The stock number is 003-010-00126-7; price, $7.50. A supplement to the
staff aper provides revision and updates of the quarterly data from the
first quarter of 1981 to the second quarter of 1984. The supplement is
available upon request from the Government Division (BE-57), Bureau of
Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230.